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Post by jawfish on Mar 22, 2023 22:54:50 GMT -5
I think they may do a little of both.
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Post by sawickipedia on Mar 23, 2023 4:35:45 GMT -5
My bet is a to the studs redo and new contracts.
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Post by dougdisney on Mar 23, 2023 8:03:29 GMT -5
I think they have to do a combination of extensions and expirations. Mathematically it would take way too long to sell all of those points for every 2042 expiry. I'm calculating 16M points expiring (5M OKW 2024 exp).
BCV and BWV are gold and I can see them letting these expire, reselling but changing/increasing the points charts for BWV for sure.
Not new news, but I've read that VBR and HHI they could just sell off at expiry.
BRV and OKW I could see them offering extensions.
Guessing any extensions would be offered between 5-10 years from expiration.
Resort Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo 1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani 5,595,400
Aulani 11,519,025
Beach Club Villas 3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower 5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas 4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge 1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas 3,321,966
Hilton Head Island 1,368,962
Old Key West 7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows 4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort 13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas 905,250
Vero Beach 1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian 1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian 2,520,379
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Post by Adelard of Bath on Mar 23, 2023 9:39:30 GMT -5
Guessing any extensions would be offered between 5-10 years from expiration. In 2042, Wife and I would be at the perfect age to consider a 10-year extension of our OKW! Now I'm wondering something else: What if I owned a contract from some other resort, with a later exp date? I wonder if I would be allowed to use those points at the "New OKW" which could very well be resold and the points chart will be like 85 per night or some damn thing, and they might say, "All you old-points people need not apply" |
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Post by tomandrobin on Mar 23, 2023 10:02:59 GMT -5
I have written about this many times on MouseOwners. This is what I expect when 2024 rolls around. OKW will remain open, because of the extended contracts. Vero Beach and Hilton Head will be sold off. BWV, BCV and BRV will close, be gutted, rebuilt and then resold as new 50 year contracts. The remodel/refurb will be extensive because the buildings will have to be renewed to last another 50 years. Having a building last 100 years and all their systems, is not possible these days. If everythign is not replaced, Disney maintenance will have nightmares trying to keep it all running.
Ironically, I do not own any of the 2024 DVC resorts.
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Post by tomandrobin on Mar 23, 2023 10:05:50 GMT -5
My bet is a to the studs redo and new contracts. And then some..... Complete system replacement. Not much will last another 50 years, on top of the previous 50 years.
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Post by ermindy1133 on Mar 23, 2023 11:40:39 GMT -5
I have written about this many times on MouseOwners. This is what I expect when 2024 rolls around. OKW will remain open, because of the extended contracts. Vero Beach and Hilton Head will be sold off. BWV, BCV and BRV will close, be gutted, rebuilt and then resold as new 50 year contracts. The remodel/refurb will be extensive because the buildings will have to be renewed to last another 50 years. Having a building last 100 years and all their systems, is not possible these days. If everything is not replaced, Disney maintenance will have nightmares trying to keep it all running.
Ironically, I do not own any of the 2024 DVC resorts.
I thought that you were one of the members predicting the sell off of VB and HHI, but hesitated to say, "Tom said," because I didn't have a post to back that up!  Nice to know I paid attention... |
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Post by neednewpark on Mar 28, 2023 12:03:55 GMT -5
I have written about this many times on MouseOwners. This is what I expect when 2024 rolls around. OKW will remain open, because of the extended contracts. Vero Beach and Hilton Head will be sold off. BWV, BCV and BRV will close, be gutted, rebuilt and then resold as new 50 year contracts. The remodel/refurb will be extensive because the buildings will have to be renewed to last another 50 years. Having a building last 100 years and all their systems, is not possible these days. If everythign is not replaced, Disney maintenance will have nightmares trying to keep it all running.
Ironically, I do not own any of the 2024 DVC resorts.
I just feel they will have way too many points to sell. And they really can't start early. No one will buy now but use later. Unless they work any buybacks into the sale as discounts. That will be a lot of points. A lot of DVC agents to deploy. Not enough time to get it done. And cash rates will be sky high to fill the gap. They will need to keep the price high to show the benefite of the DVC purchase. Will be hard to fill the resorts. If they do an extension they can buy some more time. But I do agree with your view on the maintenance of the properties after 50 years. Some of the resorts (with sub buildings) are easily upgradable. Do them in phases. Where those like Bay Lake is harder. |
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Post by zafiro on Mar 28, 2023 13:17:53 GMT -5
My best guess is that they will sell Vero and HH to a non-Disney entity. No need to keep them and they'll get a nice premium depending on the market conditions then.
BCV and BWV are a different story due to that high-demand, prime location within WDW. I speculate that they will extend some type of enticement offer or choice of offers to current owners as the expiry date nears in order to get control of as many outstanding contracts / points as possible. They could then portion out resort areas with villas still to be reserved for use for those who continue to own points while completely razing and remodeling that entire boardwalk / crescent lake area to make it much more upscale and relevant to the amenities needed in a high-end resort area of that current time.
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Nice to know I paid attention... 
