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Post by Adelard of Bath on Feb 15, 2024 10:11:11 GMT -5
Lots of talk about which resort to buy and where your most value will lie, etc, made me realize just now that none of this matters to me because wife and I want OKW and only OKW. So OKW is what we look at. To me, this feels like the reason her and I bought: our vacation is OKW and Disney Parks are nearby, which makes for fun things to do on vacation. But I realize that I am in the minority, and most people go to Disney Parks and look for DVC resorts nearby.
But seeing that chart that MinnieMom has made, brought the sudden realization of "only 18 years". The solution to that is simple for me: talk her into us getting a 2057 OKW contract! (Downside: after 2042, we would only have the points on that 2057)
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Post by Adelard of Bath on Feb 15, 2024 10:15:04 GMT -5
it’s interesting to me that “blue card status” isn’t as big of a deal now that we are in Florida full time. Wife asked me something about perks with our older contracts; I said we call them colloquially "blue card". Then I said really, the only things that brings us these days are member lounge, top of the world lounge (if they are doing it) and Moonlight Magic. We never do TOTWL and often don't do the lounge in Epcot, preferring to chill in Sunshine Seasons next door, so really for us it's just MM. Our oldest contract isn't old enough to have the ability to book the cruise line stuff. |
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Post by dlwdwdvc on Feb 15, 2024 13:48:49 GMT -5
I enter MK to walk down Main Street
Go on PeopleMover
Get Iced Peach Green Tea Lemonade No extra sugar syrup at Starbucks ( So refreshing ! )… and sit under the yellow umbrella tables to see the Castle, enjoy the sunshine & peoplewatch…
Disney Springs for the Aerophile balloon and people watch, same drink at SBX …
I plan to be propped up in my home resort window at BLT someday .
So far Disney is keeping me going tho!
I only follow one resale market and the have a huge supply . The advice to rely on a quick resale might not be a guarantee.
I wonder if the rental market is also going to suffer.
Dont forget about the new TRUST rumor …
I would Wait to give DVC anymore money even with a dvcresale company ! Caution ⛔️
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Post by tomandrobin on Feb 15, 2024 14:41:42 GMT -5
Nice calcs.....I like to see the cost of ownership as a per point value. But since you are using 100 points as your basis, you can just move the decimal over two places. Then one thing that would scare me on the Cabins is the yearly maintenance fee. Its already scary high and I can see that over the next fifty years possibly being worse. As your chart shows well, that the purchase price really is not that big of a deal vs the actual money spent over the life of ownership. I have not looked at the rental profit margins in awhile of all the resorts. Wow, those margins have really gotten tight at BCV and BWV. If you are renting at $20 pp, you are only making $4 pp. I have been renting my SSR at $18-$19 pp, making $6.7-$7.7 pp. Those 2042 resorts will be dogs to own in a few more years. I will be interested to see how the resale prices hold and the mf. Quoting myself, because this is important too. The above isn't my only calc for value, there is one more step you need to look at. The above only gets you how much per point a contract will cost. But you need to add in how/where you are going to use it.
For example, if you only stay in Poly studio (the only choice as of now). One week, in June, standard view studio is 146 points. For comparison, below is comparable rooms at other resorts.
OKW 87
AKV 100 BLT 123 BCV 116 BWV 92 VGF 132 RR 125
SSR 102 CCV 121 BRV 116
Because of point inflation over the years, to stay one week at your resort of choice will cost you a lot more per year and lifetime. So you can't just compare 100 points to 100 points, because for Poly you will need 59 more points than an OKW owner for the same week.
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Post by tomandrobin on Feb 15, 2024 14:50:39 GMT -5
My original plan was always to have enough points to use half and rent half. The half of points I rent would cover all maintenance fees.
Currently, I make $11-$12 pp over MF which is making more than my original goal of double MF. I hope that trend continues going forward.
That's a nice plan. How long is/was the breakeven on the initial outlay for the investment portion of the points? Cheers. Depends on the contract. I first bought in 2006, three SSR contracts direct from Disney. Those contracts were around $90pp so I am sure after 18 years, they have made back their money and then some. The resale contracts that I bought between 2010 and 2012 were steals at around $35pp, again have long paid for themselves. Our Riviera contracts are newer and will take awhile before they are in the black. I use to keep track of how much we made each year with our rentals, but stopped tracking it maybe 10 years ago. On my low years, I have rented enough to cover all my timeshare fees and on high years, I have made up to triple my timeshare fees. I know for fact that I have made enough to cover all my timeshare purchases and fees since I first bought. |
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Post by tomandrobin on Feb 15, 2024 14:53:29 GMT -5
I'm wondering if my adding on will allow for some rentals as my kid gets older. I probably should just go with this and get the latest find started. The agent is really sucking it up but I have a good deal for PVB. I have worried about rental market collapsing and being flooded lately. But I'm not caring too much how much I'll make. For the record if anyone is curious Disney definitely doesn't want PVB points. It's been kinda obvious in resale for a while but Disney refused a buy back offer for this contract I'm looking at. Only for once do I recall DVC rentals collapsing and that was for a few years after the 2008 recession. And even then, the rentals still covered fees plus some extra. |
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Post by Eeyorelover22 on Feb 15, 2024 15:19:41 GMT -5
Nice calcs.....I like to see the cost of ownership as a per point value. But since you are using 100 points as your basis, you can just move the decimal over two places. Then one thing that would scare me on the Cabins is the yearly maintenance fee. Its already scary high and I can see that over the next fifty years possibly being worse. As your chart shows well, that the purchase price really is not that big of a deal vs the actual money spent over the life of ownership. I have not looked at the rental profit margins in awhile of all the resorts. Wow, those margins have really gotten tight at BCV and BWV. If you are renting at $20 pp, you are only making $4 pp. I have been renting my SSR at $18-$19 pp, making $6.7-$7.7 pp. Those 2042 resorts will be dogs to own in a few more years. I will be interested to see how the resale prices hold and the mf. Quoting myself, because this is important too. The above isn't my only calc for value, there is one more step you need to look at. The above only gets you how much per point a contract will cost. But you need to add in how/where you are going to use it.
For example, if you only stay in Poly studio (the only choice as of now). One week, in June, standard view studio is 146 points. For comparison, below is comparable rooms at other resorts.
OKW 87
AKV 100 BLT 123 BCV 116 BWV 92 VGF 132 RR 125
SSR 102 CCV 121 BRV 116
Because of point inflation over the years, to stay one week at your resort of choice will cost you a lot more per year and lifetime. So you can't just compare 100 points to 100 points, because for Poly you will need 59 more points than an OKW owner for the same week.
I love RR. 50 points there wouldn’t do me much good. The resale restrictions didn’t make sense for me with thinking of passing it on to my kids and then throw in hubby doesn’t care for it, I let RR go for a purchase. 50 pts at BWV works. I had RR booked for the Art Festival but it was when the Skyliner was down for refurbishment so I hunted for BWV. He loved it. Here’s to us both getting to use the full 18 years. |
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Post by helenabear on Feb 15, 2024 15:53:48 GMT -5
I'm wondering if my adding on will allow for some rentals as my kid gets older. I probably should just go with this and get the latest find started. The agent is really sucking it up but I have a good deal for PVB. I have worried about rental market collapsing and being flooded lately. But I'm not caring too much how much I'll make. For the record if anyone is curious Disney definitely doesn't want PVB points. It's been kinda obvious in resale for a while but Disney refused a buy back offer for this contract I'm looking at. Only for once do I recall DVC rentals collapsing and that was for a few years after the 2008 recession. And even then, the rentals still covered fees plus some extra. I know it is slower right now but true on it not really collapsing outside of 2008. I am holding for now. With band nixing Disney I'm in an excess of points next year. I might just go smaller. We'll wait until after oue march trip to decide. Even just covering fees would work. No rush here. |
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Post by MinnieMom on Feb 15, 2024 16:35:52 GMT -5
Quoting myself, because this is important too. The above isn't my only calc for value, there is one more step you need to look at. The above only gets you how much per point a contract will cost. But you need to add in how/where you are going to use it. For example, if you only stay in Poly studio (the only choice as of now). One week, in June, standard view studio is 146 points. For comparison, below is comparable rooms at other resorts. OKW 87 AKV 100 BLT 123 BCV 116 BWV 92 VGF 132 RR 125 SSR 102 CCV 121 BRV 116 Because of point inflation over the years, to stay one week at your resort of choice will cost you a lot more per year and lifetime. So you can't just compare 100 points to 100 points, because for Poly you will need 59 more points than an OKW owner for the same week. I agree. That's the one reason I keep thinking about a future CFW resale, even though the MFs are scary. That CFW point chart is sweet, especially compared to the per night point inflation at the newer resorts over the years. But even a wildly optimistic 1% average annual increase over 50 years with MFs starting over $12 per point would wind up with MFs at $20 per point per year by the end of the contract. Running that calc at 5% average annual increase and the MF per point would be $139.44 in 50 years. That is a sickening thought. I may look to see if there is an average points per studio chart available anywhere and include that as another column. While it would not work for every situation, it's the closest I can think of for an apples-to-apples comparison. Goggling this question a few different ways did not yield any useful info. Another possible way to do it might be showing the spread - lowest point value for a studio versus highest per resort. That's still not exactly the right data, but it would be close. Hum. Interesting data organization challenge! |
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Post by tomandrobin on Feb 15, 2024 17:12:13 GMT -5
I agree. That's the one reason I keep thinking about a future CFW resale, even though the MFs are scary. That CFW point chart is sweet, especially compared to the per night point inflation at the newer resorts over the years. But even a wildly optimistic 1% average annual increase over 50 years with MFs starting over $12 per point would wind up with MFs at $20 per point per year by the end of the contract. Running that calc at 5% average annual increase and the MF per point would be $139.44 in 50 years. That is a sickening thought. I may look to see if there is an average points per studio chart available anywhere and include that as another column. While it would not work for every situation, it's the closest I can think of for an apples-to-apples comparison. Goggling this question a few different ways did not yield any useful info. Another possible way to do it might be showing the spread - lowest point value for a studio versus highest per resort. That's still not exactly the right data, but it would be close. Hum. Interesting data organization challenge! For 1-bedrrom point usage, the Cabins are terrific....even comparing it to some resort studio stays. For comparison sake, the Ft Wilderness Cabin would cost 148 points for the same week as the studios, in my post above. That is on par with a Poly SV studio. 100 points less than a BRV 1-bedroom.
Its not my cup of tea, but that is what makes DVC so great. There is a resort for everyone.
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Post by brp on Feb 15, 2024 17:59:11 GMT -5
Because of point inflation over the years, to stay one week at your resort of choice will cost you a lot more per year and lifetime. So you can't just compare 100 points to 100 points, because for Poly you will need 59 more points than an OKW owner for the same week.
We were just on Oahu and went to visit Ko Olina and Aulani. We have absolutely no interest in staying there for a few reasons, but I decided to look at the points as compared to BWV, for example. Base-level accommodations were as mush as, or more than, top level BWN accommodations. And, as you say, this is likely becoming more pronounced as time goes by.
Cheers.
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Post by dlwdwdvc on Feb 16, 2024 4:05:17 GMT -5
Let’s compare the future of all those added fees on my checkout statement invoice … for any other Hotel property
After Covid, I don’t believe any cash resort lowered their nightly rates because they discontinued daily housekeeping . It seems they added fees and many new taxes on taxes plus parking fees. Maybe we shouldn’t be so alarmed with the maintenance fees .
Sometimes I think Disney increases costs to increase the capital they know they are going to need . Maybe they justify because of all the unknowns.
The FtW Cabins are prone to many weather crises that a concrete building is not quite a factor.
A windstorm and torrential rains turn the cabins into a nightmare for Disney because they have to” house “ their guests in available inventory .
Also problems with Insurance Companies increasing rates or just deciding to leave the State of Florida. …
Also consider this weird state of Florida and all the political legal unexpected costs…
Also would like to know how a newly constructed property builds up their future capital available cash needs that are legally required .
Maybe the first year at the Fort needs huge capital safety net as it transitions from being a Disney property to a DVC property .
I would like to think it would average itself out but those unknowns can be scary. Right now , the future is scary.
You wouldn’t have ever thought personal Homeowners Association dues would double in one year but that is happening in Celebration , Florida…
I won’t be investing in future DVC properties because of my age .. and the resale market seems slow and I don’t want to deal with renting.and the tax implication .that changes with just being a vacation home to a business .
Also want to know about the TRUST and the legal documents describing the property purchase .
In conclusion, I guess I can find ways to calm those thoughts . The future might be great short term but drastic long term Haha or Vice versa .
I think Disney is becoming a need and not just a luxury. It’s a safety net. And those security costs to maintain that illusion are going to increase.
And maybe Disney will be happy that their competition is taking away some of the crazy future unknowns .
Mickey needs a rest perhaps. He deserves it .
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Feb 16, 2024 7:55:40 GMT -5
I perused all of the Poly resales yesterday. No real significant changes to the pricing. Most want to stay near $160/pt for 100+ points. IMO just way overpriced. And some of these contracts have been sitting awhile. I like how there is a star rating if the contract is a good deal. Only one Poly had anywhere near a good deal and I believe it was a 400 pointer.
Looks to me like BLT and SSR have dropped to decent prices, although SSR should be more in the $95/point range. I bet that could happen with a low offer.
Still nothing pushing me to buy.
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Post by helenabear on Feb 16, 2024 20:30:23 GMT -5
I perused all of the Poly resales yesterday. No real significant changes to the pricing. Most want to stay near $160/pt for 100+ points. IMO just way overpriced. And some of these contracts have been sitting awhile. I like how there is a star rating if the contract is a good deal. Only one Poly had anywhere near a good deal and I believe it was a 400 pointer. Looks to me like BLT and SSR have dropped to decent prices, although SSR should be more in the $95/point range. I bet that could happen with a low offer. Still nothing pushing me to buy. I've only been looking at June UY. Most averaging around $155 or so. Some a little lower. It dropped some from earlier. I had a $135 per point at 135 points I was nibbling on. Long and short automated offers don't always work. Especially if the agent isn't around to respond. Had me concerned about the process being screwed. I didn't need it and still debating what I need anyway. I want to see how bad those theme park views will be. |
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Feb 17, 2024 7:41:38 GMT -5
I perused all of the Poly resales yesterday. No real significant changes to the pricing. Most want to stay near $160/pt for 100+ points. IMO just way overpriced. And some of these contracts have been sitting awhile. I like how there is a star rating if the contract is a good deal. Only one Poly had anywhere near a good deal and I believe it was a 400 pointer. Looks to me like BLT and SSR have dropped to decent prices, although SSR should be more in the $95/point range. I bet that could happen with a low offer. Still nothing pushing me to buy. I've only been looking at June UY. Most averaging around $155 or so. Some a little lower. It dropped some from earlier. I had a $135 per point at 135 points I was nibbling on. Long and short automated offers don't always work. Especially if the agent isn't around to respond. Had me concerned about the process being screwed. I didn't need it and still debating what I need anyway. I want to see how bad those theme park views will be. That is the number contract I am looking for! And a great price too. I’ve looked at them all but really want to stay with my Sept UY. Every time I have offered a price under $150 I get pushback A lot of times I do think it is more from the broker. I have had to “ plead my case” to have them explain it to the seller why the offer is low ( stripped, time on the market, etc). I don’t think they want to do it. So I am not sure how much info really gets to the seller other than there is a low offer of X. If Poly2 ends up not being part of the original association, I think we will see these prices start to rapidly drop. I am willing to wait because again, I think Poly resales are overpriced and these brokers don’t want to sell. |
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