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Post by zafiro on Apr 12, 2023 10:05:58 GMT -5
I'm not in the majority here with my desire to see Reflections happen, but I've held off buying at BLT hoping Reflections will become a reality. I'm also hoping for another Skyliner Loop from that entire Wilderness Lodge / Ft. Wilderness / Reflections area of Bay Lake to the TTC. Riviera has been a great addition to the DVC collection and I believe Reflections will attract new and similar interest as well.
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 12, 2023 11:02:16 GMT -5
Reflections Resort was never canceled. It was put into a long term "hold" until it was needed again. Once Covid hit and the slow recovery, DVC sales slowed drastically and never have fully recovered to the same sales pace prior. Eventually, the project will come back online once DVC needs more points to sell. But that is still many years out.
Between Riviera and VGF, DVC has approximately 3.8 million points to sell, which at current sales pace is 38 months of inventory. Then there is the new Poly tower, which will buy at least another 3 years of points.
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Post by nickys on Apr 12, 2023 11:22:15 GMT -5
Reflections Resort was never canceled. It was put into a long term "hold" until it was needed again. Once Covid hit and the slow recovery, DVC sales slowed drastically and never have fully recovered to the same sales pace prior. Eventually, the project will come back online once DVC needs more points to sell. But that is still many years out. Between Riviera and VGF, DVC has approximately 3.8 million points to sell, which at current sales pace is 38 months of inventory. Then there is the new Poly tower, which will buy at least another 3 years of points. I remember the official status was “on hold” , but by that token Main St Theatre is still officially happening (it was never cancelled) as is Mary Poppins which was similarly put “on hold”. I think Len’s point is this is now being talked about again, which I find interesting given how sales have been. And they also green lot and started the Poly Tower despite the status of sales at Riviera. Do you think they will start building within a year or so of the Poly Tower going on sale, or do you think it will be further out than that? |
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Post by rigby on Apr 12, 2023 11:36:16 GMT -5
amdev I thought they looked the same as well. Just walked by the new poly building a couple of weeks ago. I don’t get any kind of Polynesian feeling from what I’ve seen so far. Hope they do something to keep it in theme.
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Post by helenabear on Apr 12, 2023 12:26:37 GMT -5
amdev I thought they looked the same as well. Just walked by the new poly building a couple of weeks ago. I don’t get any kind of Polynesian feeling from what I’ve seen so far. Hope they do something to keep it in theme. It's concrete..... Just wait for Tiki gods to appear  |
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 12, 2023 12:43:09 GMT -5
Knowing that DVC will have at about 7 years of points to sell with Riviera, VGF and Poly....I don't see any new DVC construction for a few years after the Poly is done. I am guessing that this new tower will have about 4m points when it goes on sale. The Poly is set to open next year, probably at the end of the year. So that would leave about 5 years of inventory.
In Disney time, five years is long time for lots of things to happen and change. I have always thought that for Disney and DVC, they only have to build new up to 2042, when the original resorts expire. Based on the above, DVC has inventory thru 2030, so they need to add 12 more years of new inventory to sell.
There has been iterations of Reflections, when it gets built, it could be a third design that is more DVC and less hotel/no hotel. There is always the rumor of a DVC expansion at the Yacht Club, which may buy more time. There is the BLT 2 rumor and more GF conversion. I feel that Reflections will now be the last new build after whatever comes after the Poly.
Iger's contract runs til the end of 2024. Will he renew or be asked to leave, that will greatly impact the direction DVC goes next.
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 12, 2023 12:45:55 GMT -5
amdev I thought they looked the same as well. Just walked by the new poly building a couple of weeks ago. I don’t get any kind of Polynesian feeling from what I’ve seen so far. Hope they do something to keep it in theme. Nope.....Not with that height.
It will be of a Waikiki feel, not really part of the original.
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Post by henrycpa on Apr 12, 2023 13:30:33 GMT -5
amdev I thought they looked the same as well. Just walked by the new poly building a couple of weeks ago. I don’t get any kind of Polynesian feeling from what I’ve seen so far. Hope they do something to keep it in theme. Nope.....Not with that height.
It will be of a Waikiki feel, not really part of the original.
Tom, that is a pretty good thought out rationale... and one I had not. I think what you are thinking, without directly saying, is in 2042 Disney will shut down the Villa poritions of BWV, BCV, and VWL (or whatever it is called now) and do a major overhaul on them for 2-3 years and then re-issue them as New DVC resorts for sale....And that breaks my heart because I have secretly hoped they would let me buy in and extend my current ownership... |
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 12, 2023 14:10:30 GMT -5
I think what you are thinking, without directly saying, is in 2042 Disney will shut down the Villa poritions of BWV, BCV, and VWL (or whatever it is called now) and do a major overhaul on them for 2-3 years and then re-issue them as New DVC resorts for sale....And that breaks my heart because I have secretly hoped they would let me buy in and extend my current ownership... Yes.....I feel that in 2042, Vero and Hilton Head will be gone. BCV, BWV, WL and most of OKW will revert back to Disney. Depending on urgency and need, Disney will gut and rebuild those properties and sell them again.
Having 19 years left on those contracts is pretty far out. Who knows where Disney will be financially or if they are owned by another company. I will be 76 years old when those resorts expire. Can't wait to see how those last few years unfold for the original DVC resorts. Heck DVC might get desperate and try extensions again.
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Post by helenabear on Apr 12, 2023 14:20:15 GMT -5
I think what you are thinking, without directly saying, is in 2042 Disney will shut down the Villa poritions of BWV, BCV, and VWL (or whatever it is called now) and do a major overhaul on them for 2-3 years and then re-issue them as New DVC resorts for sale....And that breaks my heart because I have secretly hoped they would let me buy in and extend my current ownership... Yes.....I feel that in 2042, Vero and Hilton Head will be gone. BCV, BWV, WL and most of OKW will revert back to Disney. Depending on urgency and need, Disney will gut and rebuild those properties and sell them again.
Having 19 years left on those contracts is pretty far out. Who knows where Disney will be financially or if they are owned by another company. I will be 76 years old when those resorts expire. Can't wait to see how those last few years unfold for the original DVC resorts. Heck DVC might get desperate and try extensions again.
They cannot revert OKW. The entire resort ends in 2057 now. I think Disney would be a fool to try the extensions. They'd run risks of pushing out end dates that not all want. |
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Apr 12, 2023 16:09:13 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see what they do with BRV. Will they keep it the same points chart as CCV? Will the new increased price per point ( after refurb in 2042) elevate CCV resales?
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Post by henrycpa on Apr 13, 2023 7:42:49 GMT -5
They cannot revert OKW. The entire resort ends in 2057 now. I think Disney would be a fool to try the extensions. They'd run risks of pushing out end dates that not all want. I don't know. Depends how long they push it out. Let say they offer another 40 year but price it pretty close to existing points. That is basically a whole new sale. |
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Post by helenabear on Apr 13, 2023 8:21:55 GMT -5
They cannot revert OKW. The entire resort ends in 2057 now. I think Disney would be a fool to try the extensions. They'd run risks of pushing out end dates that not all want. I don't know. Depends how long they push it out. Let say they offer another 40 year but price it pretty close to existing points. That is basically a whole new sale. Really, the issue is the same with OKW. The entire resort would have to be pushed out. Which is a problem now since not all DVC owners want to extend. They won't make that mistake again. Any risk of having things hang over their heads isn't worth it. |
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Post by zafiro on Apr 13, 2023 11:49:09 GMT -5
I like the Poly tower; I know it looks like a more modern Waikiki or Ka'anipali resort, but anyone wanting a more 1950s Tiki look can go to the original. Best of both worlds. I think it is a perfect use of existing and limited space and allows for plenty of rooms (hopefully the full cadre of studios, 1,2 and 3 bedrooms) along that area of the 7 Seas. I'm excited to see what they plan for amenities; especially any roof top or top floor restaurant and bar. I hope that they can repeat the success of Riviera's Topolino's. The architecture looks to be in the similar style as the Disneyland DVC and the Swan Reserve. As much as some love the old traditional and thematic looks, the younger travelers - and potential owners - like modern, clean, and upscale look resorts. DVD/DVC is focusing all new projects on those consumers, as they should - - all of us here are counting how old we will be by 2042, 2057, etc...while those consumers are looking at having a 50 year span without the constraint of aging out.
As far as OKW is concerned, DVC could easily set aside just a section of the resort for the 2057 contracts and allow access to all "newly constructed amenities" until they can redo whatever section or section covers that particular number of points. It can be done that way, or they can attempt to buy out the outstanding 2057 contracts. I don't see having a small number or extensions holding back any redo; especially for that particular piece of property.
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Post by nickys on Apr 13, 2023 12:36:08 GMT -5
As far as OKW is concerned, DVC could easily set aside just a section of the resort for the 2057 contracts and allow access to all "newly constructed amenities" until they can redo whatever section or section covers that particular number of points. It can be done that way, or they can attempt to buy out the outstanding 2057 contracts. I don't see having a small number or extensions holding back any redo; especially for that particular piece of property. Can they do this though? Set aside part of the resort? According to at least one FL attorney I follow on the DIS, because the deeds show which unit people own a part of, they can’t just remove a section of buildings. Or at least they can’t demolish any of the “units” that are still owned. I guess they could just do a major refurb but there are strict FL laws on this (which presumably override any RCID / new body decisions). As for buying back, that is what they’re doing. The only OKW contracts that get taken in ROFR are the 2042 ones, which are then flipped to 2057 and resold. The issue is the unknown number of contracts where the owners neither extended nor signed the quit claim.And I now know of 4 such owners. Whether I’ll be around to see what happens I don’t know. I hope so, albeit I doubt I’ll still be a DVC member. My travel insurance would probably exceed the annual dues…. 🤪 |
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