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Post by helenabear on Jul 22, 2023 17:19:55 GMT -5
I'm not sure coffee will help me figure out what they will do lol. Some legal expert noted that we own specific parts too so technically they cannot just tear down either as some others suggested elsewhere. Then they'll have to deal with non quit claim signed owners too. They have at least been trying to buyback OKW to resell. Be interesting to watch in 2042.... No.... see OKW debacle Yeah I am aware of that debacle. But that doesn’t mean there may not be some other extension proposal. Never say never In this case I will. Sorry but it won't happen. Not at this point and not with the hot mess they have for OKW. If they resell I could see them offering a discount to current owners but, like fetch, an extension won't happen. |
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Post by bakerworld on Jul 23, 2023 6:36:47 GMT -5
How many Homes expire in 2042 (OKW, SSR, BW, BC, Boulder)? That 15 year gap between 2042 and 2057 might be interesting.
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Post by helenabear on Jul 23, 2023 7:07:29 GMT -5
How many Homes expire in 2042 (OKW, SSR, BW, BC, Boulder)? That 15 year gap between 2042 and 2057 might be interesting. OKW and SSR are not 2042 resorts. BCV, BWV, BRV, HHI, & VBR are the 2042 resorts. OKW is 2057 with some deeds ending in 2042 early but resort wnd date is 2057. SSR is 2054 |
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Post by bakerworld on Jul 23, 2023 8:20:38 GMT -5
How many Homes expire in 2042 (OKW, SSR, BW, BC, Boulder)? That 15 year gap between 2042 and 2057 might be interesting. OKW and SSR are not 2042 resorts. BCV, BWV, BRV, HHI, & VBR are the 2042 resorts. OKW is 2057 with some deeds ending in 2042 early but resort end date is 2057. SSR is 2054 Thanks! I thought half the resort Homes would be wiped out in 2042. Just shows how little DVC research we've ever engaged. |
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Post by fuzzylogic on Jul 23, 2023 9:26:01 GMT -5
When the 2042 date gets closer, might there be a run of staying at OKW, existing owners or renters?. OKW - nah I doubt it. People who own here can stay here, but people who own at BW or BC won't be clamoring to use their points to stay at OKW. We will, however, see this run on BW / BC. The relative demands are obvious when you look 7 mo out: Checking studios, OKW has tons of availability. BW Std and BW views are sold out completely, and PG has barely a day here or there. But you can't make the assumption that rental rates will remain the same. Yeah. Rental rates won't stay constant like that. They will continue to rise with dues and hotel rates. Then there's the location premium. BW / BC points rent for more than OKW points and that gap will grow as the years to take advantage of the locations near their end. OKW, VB and HH will crash because few ppl will be seeking out these contracts in their waning years. Once we see that a Boardwalk room can only be gotten for 10 points for a few more years and expecting that when it is reimagined post-2042 these will cost double or more, the rooms will go for whatever an owner wants to charge if they rent them at all. We will be using and not renting them out.  OKW is 2057 with some deeds ending in 2042 early but resort wnd date is 2057. Tomato Tomato - but I would say OKW is a 2042 with some deeds being extended to 2057 since reports I've read suggest only some 25% are extended. Most are 2042. It's kind of cool that Disney can ROFR a 2042 OKW contract for cheap, and sell new as a 2057. But how many people are buying OKW direct at $205. |
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 23, 2023 9:43:53 GMT -5
Once the cost of ownership is more then what it would cost to rent, that is when the resale prices will start crashing for that resort. But you can't make the assumption that rental rates will remain the same. As MFs go up, surely rental rates will go up. Also, isn't the idea of "resale prices crashing" based on the assumption that a person would say "I own, but I could rent cheaper, so I am going to sell and just rent instead"? If that happens, the rental demand would increase, leading to an increase in cost of renting, which would counteract the idea of it being cheaper to rent. Except suffice to say, if we had to pay rack rates....we wouldn't be going for two weeks in a 1-bd. Which is pretty much why we bought in the first place. As I had noted, it was quick example, not an all encompassing calculation. There are several factors that are guesses and several factors I did not include. There is a sliding scale factor that I did not add in the calc. For example, in 2032 if you paid $105 pp for OKW, now your pp cost over the contract is now $10.5 vs the $5.52 pp today. My calc did not take into account losing points each year, devaluing the length of contract cost. I used David's as an example. There are places and times that charges more and some that charge less. Inflation of rental prices could be anywhere. Back after the 2008 recession there were 4-6 years of rock bottom rental rates per point. Will there be another 2008 recession.....maybe or maybe not. Heck, with rumors of Disney getting sold, who knows what Disney could l look like 8 years from now. I don't see Disney being bought but it wouldn't surprise me it was sold. |
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Post by tomandrobin on Jul 23, 2023 9:56:55 GMT -5
OKW is 2057 with some deeds ending in 2042 early but resort wnd date is 2057. Tomato Tomato - but I would say OKW is a 2042 with some deeds being extended to 2057 since reports I've read suggest only some 25% are extended. Most are 2042. It's kind of cool that Disney can ROFR a 2042 OKW contract for cheap, and sell new as a 2057. But how many people are buying OKW direct at $205. Last month , it was a little over 2500 points, 21 contracts |
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Post by fuzzylogic on Jul 23, 2023 10:01:44 GMT -5
For example, in 2032 if you paid $105 pp for OKW, now your pp cost over the contract is now $10.5 vs the $5.52 pp today. My calc did not take into account losing points each year, devaluing the length of contract cost. No one's going to pay $105 for OKW in 2032. You wouldn't pay that today. OKW-2042 is going for $90'ish and the market is saturated with them. By 2032 it will be close to unsellable since there will be no value in committing to closing costs on a 10-year contract that can't stay at the new resorts (imagine what will be built between now and 2032), the prime old resorts, and you're basically OKW/SSR-only. Unless you want to sell for cheap (which Disney can ROFR and resell as 2057 which will at that point be a 25-year contract - nice) you'd be best off just riding out your ownership and enjoying your stays in the cheap rooms. |
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Post by helenabear on Jul 23, 2023 10:22:16 GMT -5
When the 2042 date gets closer, might there be a run of staying at OKW, existing owners or renters?. OKW - nah I doubt it. People who own here can stay here, but people who own at BW or BC won't be clamoring to use their points to stay at OKW. We will, however, see this run on BW / BC. The relative demands are obvious when you look 7 mo out: Checking studios, OKW has tons of availability. BW Std and BW views are sold out completely, and PG has barely a day here or there. But you can't make the assumption that rental rates will remain the same. Yeah. Rental rates won't stay constant like that. They will continue to rise with dues and hotel rates. Then there's the location premium. BW / BC points rent for more than OKW points and that gap will grow as the years to take advantage of the locations near their end. OKW, VB and HH will crash because few ppl will be seeking out these contracts in their waning years. Once we see that a Boardwalk room can only be gotten for 10 points for a few more years and expecting that when it is reimagined post-2042 these will cost double or more, the rooms will go for whatever an owner wants to charge if they rent them at all. We will be using and not renting them out. OKW is 2057 with some deeds ending in 2042 early but resort wnd date is 2057. Tomato Tomato - but I would say OKW is a 2042 with some deeds being extended to 2057 since reports I've read suggest only some 25% are extended. Most are 2042. It's kind of cool that Disney can ROFR a 2042 OKW contract for cheap, and sell new as a 2057. But how many people are buying OKW direct at $205. Not tomato tomato. And no, OKW is not 2042 because you feel it is. POS is changed to 2057. The resort cannot cease to end in 2042. I don't think people understand it's not the number of quit claims signed the ENTIRE resort now ends in 2057. What Disney does with it is a question but OKW will continue as a DVC resort to owners until 2057. Why do you think DVC ROFR contracts so much? They don't want to be stuck with a ton of OKW points. They want owners to pay for MF and such. |
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Post by FessParker1 on Jul 23, 2023 10:26:21 GMT -5
OKW was a little over 25% of 2057 contracts in 2019. Since then about 120,000 points have been sold direct. This brings 2057 contracts to about 27% as 76,748 points is 1% of the contracts
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Post by helenabear on Jul 23, 2023 10:31:43 GMT -5
OKW was a little over 25% of 2057 contracts in 2019. Since then about 120,000 points have been sold direct. This brings 2057 contracts to about 27% as 76,748 points is 1% of the contracts They got a lot of selling to do. They need OKW to look favorable if they don't want to be stuck in 2042. Unless I sell I'm not even sure what they will do with contracts like mine too. Given my feelings right now OKW is the first I'll dump. PVB probably my last. |
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Post by fuzzylogic on Jul 23, 2023 11:42:35 GMT -5
The resort cannot cease to end in 2042. I don't think people understand it's not the number of quit claims signed the ENTIRE resort now ends in 2057. What Disney does with it is a question but OKW will continue as a DVC resort to owners until 2057. Why do you think DVC ROFR contracts so much? They don't want to be stuck with a ton of OKW points. They want owners to pay for MF and such. It is tomato tomato. You're changing this to be about when the resort will cease to end. I think you mean end, not cease to end, but still. In the prior pages we were talking about the # of points in circulation. In 2042, some 75% (plus 1% a year if you want to assert that) of OKW points plus all of VB, HH, etc will leave circulation at once. This will have a strong effect on bookings in the last few years. I think it will drive BW/BC to be highly demanded in those last few years, and OKW/VB/HH to be devalued to close to nothing in the last few years as no one will be seeking out 2042 OKW resale contracts with 5 years to go. |
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Post by helenabear on Jul 23, 2023 12:34:30 GMT -5
The resort cannot cease to end in 2042. I don't think people understand it's not the number of quit claims signed the ENTIRE resort now ends in 2057. What Disney does with it is a question but OKW will continue as a DVC resort to owners until 2057. Why do you think DVC ROFR contracts so much? They don't want to be stuck with a ton of OKW points. They want owners to pay for MF and such. It is tomato tomato. You're changing this to be about when the resort will cease to end. I think you mean end, not cease to end, but still. In the prior pages we were talking about the # of points in circulation. In 2042, some 75% (plus 1% a year if you want to assert that) of OKW points plus all of VB, HH, etc will leave circulation at once. This will have a strong effect on bookings in the last few years. I think it will drive BW/BC to be highly demanded in those last few years, and OKW/VB/HH to be devalued to close to nothing in the last few years as no one will be seeking out 2042 OKW resale contracts with 5 years to go. Look at what I quoted. Someone asked which resorts end in 2042 and I answered. That was it. You are bringing me into a conversation I was never a part of. So honestly I'm hoping you'll understand that and not bring me into this any further. Enjoy your day. |
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Post by Adelard of Bath on Jul 23, 2023 12:35:43 GMT -5
Okay I gotta ask, what do you guys mean by "tomato tomato"? A small amount of googling was giving me answers that weren't making sense to me in this context.
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Post by helenabear on Jul 23, 2023 12:37:21 GMT -5
Okay I gotta ask, what do you guys mean by "tomato tomato"? A small amount of googling was giving me answers that weren't making sense to me in this context. Pronunciation with accents. Toe-may-to vs toe-mah-toe Same with potato and po-tah-to. |
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