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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 24, 2024 7:00:35 GMT -5
I just saw the updated sales numbers for the cabins......dismal is too nice of a description. Only 12,326 points were sold in March, its first "full" month of sales data, 19,500 total points since sales started Feb 1st. Projected out, that is 150,000 points for a full year. For a comparison, when VGF expansion sales started, 115,000 points were sold the first month and 177,000 points its second month. The Cabins have an estimated 2,780,000 points. At current pace of sales, it will take 18 years for the resort sell out.
Looking into my crystal ball, I see some really big discounts for the Cabins. It is too early for DVC to panic, but management has to be really concerned. When Poly sales for the Tower start this summer, the Cabins Sales will be destroyed. I can't wait to see how creative the sales will be and what DVC needs to "throw-in" or discount to energize sales for the Cabins.
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Apr 24, 2024 7:26:42 GMT -5
Well first of all they needed to include a washer and dryer. Do they even have 2 full bathrooms? Also should have included access to a free or discounted golf cart. I am just not seeing the amenities.
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Apr 24, 2024 7:29:08 GMT -5
This also makes me question opening prices for Poly. If the cabins are selling this bad, they are gonna want to make it up on the Poly end. Will make the cabins seem like a bargain ( and you can also stay at the new Poly with your points).
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Post by helenabear on Apr 24, 2024 7:45:01 GMT -5
I was just saying this after reading the numbers yesterday. Polynesian will likely wind up blowing RR out of the water even with higher point costs per room. But definitely the cabins might be our next Aulani failure (in terms of sales). I am guessing same price as DLH Villas (sorry but VDH... they weren't thinking  ) No the cabins only have one bathroom. There also is a shower and not a tub. No washer & dryer. For us it's not gonna happen. Maybe not even if a son and mom trip. I'd rather spend points on PVB studio to get two showers. |
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Post by MinnieMom on Apr 24, 2024 8:27:14 GMT -5
Yikes - that's painful for DVC. The price is wrong. The purchase price is too high for what is essentially the first moderate DVC and the annual maintenance fee is far too high.
I also still think they missed on the floor plan of the new cabins, but that might simply be a personal preference.
None of that will stop me from using current points to enjoy stays in the new cabins at the campground. The cabins at Fort Wilderness will work for me for solo trips, for girls trips and (mostly) for family trips. Although I get preferring Poly studios or other options, the space and kitchen at the cabins combined with the parking spot right at the cabin works for me.
I could see buying at FW if DVC offered a discount on annual fees and/or lowered the purchase price via discounts. If the resale market gets to a point where the price makes sense, I could live with the resale restrictions on the FW points. But that's likely at least a year if not more out as initial buyers decide to opt out.
It will be interesting to see if/what DVC offers in the way of discounts to get sales going. I totally agree that the Poly tower sales will blow the campground cabins out of the water.
Does DVC have any way out of the declared points for the cabins? I mean, could they choose to replace fewer cabins with DVC, the reducing the number of points to sell and maybe reducing annual fees as the DVC portion would take a smaller percentage of the total costs of the campground?
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Post by baymaxfan on Apr 24, 2024 9:14:29 GMT -5
Almost every new DVC has increased both in price and maintenance fees. Eventually, this is not sustainable and a saturation point will be reached. At the current price point, there are less and less families that can afford DVC and many that can are already owners or are waiting for more attractive options (like the new Poly tower). The days of easy money are over for now. You can't charge a premium price for a moderate product (at best) - poor location, lack of amenities, mixed with campsites (I have no issue with campsites but they don't scream Disney deluxe accommodations). FW is a bust and could be seen a mile away.
VDH is also expensive, but at least it offers location and amenities. Yes, because of price, it will sell slow, but it will sell.
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Post by Adelard of Bath on Apr 24, 2024 9:37:16 GMT -5
I can't help but think - it is very easy for all of us to sit around and say to ourselves, "They are idiots, what were they thinking?" But surely they did a ton of market research, and it's not like they are new to this game. So what gives? Maybe there is more to the picture than what we "little people" can see. Who knows - maybe a slow-selling DVC can be seen as a long, slow influx of cash, something you can count on years down the road? Vs the flash-fire that a hot DVC might give, huge numbers but over and done in a year. I of course know nothing - but I can't assume I know better than them.
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Post by helenabear on Apr 24, 2024 9:42:36 GMT -5
Almost every new DVC has increased both in price and maintenance fees. Eventually, this is not sustainable and a saturation point will be reached. At the current price point, there are less and less families that can afford DVC and many that can are already owners or are waiting for more attractive options (like the new Poly tower). The days of easy money are over for now. You can't charge a premium price for a moderate product (at best) - poor location, lack of amenities, mixed with campsites (I have no issue with campsites but they don't scream Disney deluxe accommodations). FW is a bust and could be seen a mile away. VDH is also expensive, but at least it offers location and amenities. Yes, because of price, it will sell slow, but it will sell. It also has the transient tax added on at check out vs VGC putting it into the MFs, which is off putting for some. They will have a 3% increase in 2025. That I think is hurting sales more than price tbh But yes the amenities are severely lacking for the cabins. |
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Post by baymaxfan on Apr 24, 2024 9:45:34 GMT -5
I can't help but think - it is very easy for all of us to sit around and say to ourselves, "They are idiots, what were they thinking?" But surely they did a ton of market research, and it's not like they are new to this game. So what gives? Maybe there is more to the picture than what we "little people" can see. Who knows - maybe a slow-selling DVC can be seen as a long, slow influx of cash, something you can count on years down the road? Vs the flash-fire that a hot DVC might give, huge numbers but over and done in a year. I of course know nothing - but I can't assume I know better than them. I can imagine a scenario where FW was supposed to be a lower-cost entry point for DVC and then costs spiraled out of control and ended up being very pricey. While I have no idea of the inner workings of DVD/DVC, they don't want a property that sells this slow. That ties up capital, adds to advertising costs, puts them on the hook for the maintenance fees, and they will even find themselves having to do refurbishment(s) on their dime if this really takes 18 years to sell out. Aulani is in the same boat (open for 13 years and still not sold out) and they pretty much admitted that it was a business mistake said no more non-park DVCs after that. |
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Post by baymaxfan on Apr 24, 2024 9:47:59 GMT -5
Almost every new DVC has increased both in price and maintenance fees. Eventually, this is not sustainable and a saturation point will be reached. At the current price point, there are less and less families that can afford DVC and many that can are already owners or are waiting for more attractive options (like the new Poly tower). The days of easy money are over for now. You can't charge a premium price for a moderate product (at best) - poor location, lack of amenities, mixed with campsites (I have no issue with campsites but they don't scream Disney deluxe accommodations). FW is a bust and could be seen a mile away. VDH is also expensive, but at least it offers location and amenities. Yes, because of price, it will sell slow, but it will sell. It also has the transient tax added on at check out vs VGC putting it into the MFs, which is off putting for some. They will have a 3% increase in 2025. That I think is hurting sales more than price tbh But yes the amenities are severely lacking for the cabins. Even if you account for the TOT and high cost of VDH, it is still less expensive that booking at the Disneyland Hotel for similar accommodations. At the end of the day, there are only 3 hotels in the Disney bubble at DL. All of the DL hotels are out of this world on price, so I still expect VDH to sell out, just slower than expected (but no where near as bad as FW). |
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Post by helenabear on Apr 24, 2024 10:01:09 GMT -5
It also has the transient tax added on at check out vs VGC putting it into the MFs, which is off putting for some. They will have a 3% increase in 2025. That I think is hurting sales more than price tbh But yes the amenities are severely lacking for the cabins. Even if you account for the TOT and high cost of VDH, it is still less expensive that booking at the Disneyland Hotel for similar accommodations. At the end of the day, there are only 3 hotels in the Disney bubble at DL. All of the DL hotels are out of this world on price, so I still expect VDH to sell out, just slower than expected (but no where near as bad as FW). It's still a massive deterrent to many that have discussed it. They'd rather be offsite which is a different beast there as well. I expect it to eventually sell out but it's no VGC in so many ways. Sadly that's the fact. About 19% has been sold in the opening year. We're talking 4-5 years to sell out. That's pretty slow compared to some. Let's be real, their best seller is RR and that's not even going all that fast. 72,275 points for RR 16, 086 for Disneyland 12,326 for Cabins Both of those two are slow.... very slow. |
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Post by BWV Dreamin on Apr 24, 2024 10:01:14 GMT -5
Almost every new DVC has increased both in price and maintenance fees. Eventually, this is not sustainable and a saturation point will be reached. At the current price point, there are less and less families that can afford DVC and many that can are already owners or are waiting for more attractive options (like the new Poly tower). The days of easy money are over for now. You can't charge a premium price for a moderate product (at best) - poor location, lack of amenities, mixed with campsites (I have no issue with campsites but they don't scream Disney deluxe accommodations). FW is a bust and could be seen a mile away. VDH is also expensive, but at least it offers location and amenities. Yes, because of price, it will sell slow, but it will sell. You bring up an interesting thought about MF’s. Assuming the new Poly Tower is part of the existing PVB, how can they increase MF’s on a new product attached to an older resort? Unless I’m missing something, new direct points sold will have to have the current MF’s as has PVB. Correct? |
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Post by helenabear on Apr 24, 2024 10:02:34 GMT -5
Almost every new DVC has increased both in price and maintenance fees. Eventually, this is not sustainable and a saturation point will be reached. At the current price point, there are less and less families that can afford DVC and many that can are already owners or are waiting for more attractive options (like the new Poly tower). The days of easy money are over for now. You can't charge a premium price for a moderate product (at best) - poor location, lack of amenities, mixed with campsites (I have no issue with campsites but they don't scream Disney deluxe accommodations). FW is a bust and could be seen a mile away. VDH is also expensive, but at least it offers location and amenities. Yes, because of price, it will sell slow, but it will sell. You bring up an interesting thought about MF’s. Assuming the new Poly Tower is part of the existing PVB, how can they increase MF’s on a new product attached to an older resort? Unless I’m missing something, new direct points sold will have to have the current MF’s as has PVB. Correct? PVB will start at the current MF. They will announce 2025 MFs right around when it opens. |
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 24, 2024 10:22:08 GMT -5
Does DVC have any way out of the declared points for the cabins? I mean, could they choose to replace fewer cabins with DVC, the reducing the number of points to sell and maybe reducing annual fees as the DVC portion would take a smaller percentage of the total costs of the campground? The answer is yes and no.
We can look to Vero Beach for the answer. The points that are declared are part of the DVC resort. All of the undeclared points can be removed from the POS and revert back to the Ft Wilderness Resort. The problem will be that Disney will be on the hook for subsidizing the DVC units until the end of contract.
The last time something like this happened, people got fired.
-Jim Lewis, president of Disney Vacation Club.
-Jim Heaney, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Disney Cruise Line and travel operations -Lawrence Smith, director of finance for Disney Vacation Club
Don't forget about the restrictions on resales at the resort. This is just as bad as the high maintenance fees in my opinion .
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Post by tomandrobin on Apr 24, 2024 10:25:15 GMT -5
This is just my opinion, but Riviera Resort would have been sold out a long time ago if it did not have the resale restriction. |
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